U.S. Intelligence Warns Foreign Missile Threats To Homeland Will Surge Past 16,000 By 2035

Foreign adversaries are actively developing advanced missile platforms that could more than quintuple the strike volume facing the American homeland over the next decade, according to findings from the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment released by the U.S. Intelligence Community.

The unclassified assessment, prepared by the National Intelligence Council under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, projects that foreign delivery systems capable of targeting the United States will expand from roughly 3,000 missiles today to more than 16,000 by 2035.

Intelligence officials point to a coordinated, multi-nation push by China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan to field an array of novel, conventional, and nuclear-capable delivery systems designed to challenge and saturate American defenses.

To complicate detection and intercept capabilities, these militaries are increasingly planning to pair sophisticated, high-end long-range missiles with cheaper, expendable one-way attack drones to overwhelm defensive systems through sheer volume.

North Korea has already demonstrated and successfully tested intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the entire U.S. mainland, while continuing to accelerate flight tests and uranium enrichment to expand its operational nuclear arsenal.

The assessment also noted that prior to the U.S.-led Operation Epic Fury, Iran had developed space-launch vehicles with technical capabilities that could be adapted into a militarily viable ICBM by 2035 if Tehran chooses to do so.

China and Russia remain the primary strategic drivers of advanced delivery systems. Moscow maintains the world’s largest and most diverse nuclear stockpile and continues modernizing its air, land, and submarine fleets despite recent testing setbacks. The report notes Russia is also pursuing space-based antisatellite weapons and novel delivery platforms specifically engineered to bypass existing U.S. interception networks.

Russia’s new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile is test launched at an unspecified location in Russia. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service)

Beijing views ongoing nuclear and missile modernization as vital to its long-term strategic rivalry with Washington. Chinese planners are heavily focused on countering planned American missile defense architectures, including the proposed “Golden Dome for America.”

According to the assessment, Chinese officials are concerned that comprehensive U.S. missile shields could lower Washington’s threshold for military action during a crisis, prompting Beijing to seek asymmetric counters and utilize international arms control venues to limit space-based defenses.

While the report emphasizes that America’s existing nuclear deterrent continues to safeguard the homeland, it cautions that the rapid spread of advanced precision-strike capabilities, hypersonic systems, and dual-use technologies across multiple foreign militaries will steadily raise the complexity of defending domestic airspace over the coming decade.