Florida TaxWatch Examines Potential Congressional Seat Gains
Census Undercount and Policy Proposals Point to Florida Gaining at Least One U.S. House Seat
A new report from Florida TaxWatch reveals that Florida could have gained at least one additional congressional seat in the 2020 census if not for a significant undercount of the state’s population.
Released by the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute, the briefing, titled “Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals,” explores three scenarios under which Florida would have gained a seat, emphasizing the political and financial consequences of the undercount.
According to Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro, an estimated 750,000 Floridians were not counted in the 2020 census, a statistically significant undercount of 3.48 percent. This omission cost the state at least one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, an electoral vote, and billions in federal funding—an estimated $11 billion to $21 billion by the end of the decade.
The Three Scenarios
The briefing uses 2020 census data to project apportionment outcomes under three different policy scenarios, each demonstrating Florida’s potential to gain representation.
Scenario 1: Accurate Count of All Residents
If the 2020 census had accurately counted all U.S. residents, Florida would have gained an additional congressional seat. This seat was instead allocated to Colorado, while Tennessee and Texas would also have gained seats at the expense of Minnesota and Rhode Island. This scenario highlights the direct impact of the undercount on Florida’s political influence.
Scenario 2: Counting Legal Residents Only
This scenario is based on an August 7, 2025, announcement by President Donald Trump that the next census would exclude illegal immigrants. By subtracting estimated illegal immigrant populations from the adjusted 2020 census data, the report shows that Florida would have gained at least one congressional seat. In this scenario, Florida, Louisiana, Ohio, Texas, and Virginia would have gained seats, while California, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island would have lost seats.
Scenario 3: Counting Citizens Only
This model is based on the “Correct the Count Act,” introduced on August 5, 2025, by U.S. House Representative Randy Fine, which would require a snap census counting only citizens. By subtracting all non-citizens (including permanent residents and those with temporary legal status) from the adjusted 2020 data, the analysis reveals that Florida would have gained a seat. This is the most impactful scenario for many states, with California losing three seats and New York losing two. Seven states, including Florida, would have gained a seat.
Looking Ahead to 2030
Florida TaxWatch emphasizes that to secure a fair outcome in the 2030 census, the state must take proactive measures. This includes supporting the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA), a program where local governments provide the Census Bureau with updated lists of residences.
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp stated, “To maintain a fair democratic republic, every state should count its residents in the same way.” The organization is urging residents to stay informed, spread awareness, and support community efforts to ensure a complete count in 2030, which will not only secure proper congressional representation but also billions in crucial federal funding.
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